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Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season
Future Start Same with ATL and EPac. Betting pools for the WPac and NIO will be made once 2013 is over. Ryan1000 01:08, October 28, 2013 (UTC) :Here are my predictions for the Western Pacific (using JMA categories): 60 total depressions, 33 total tropical storms, 27 total severe tropical storms, 21 total typhoons (11 strong, 6''' intense, and '''4 violent), and an ACE of 450 (give or take 25). AndrewTalk To Me 01:51, January 3, 2014 (UTC) :60 depressions? Are you trying to predict the most active season in world history or something?! I don't think we will get even close to that number of depressions. Heck, we might not even reach 40. Anyway, time for my predictions, which are meant to be realistic as I can: 35 total depressions, 28 total tropical storms, 23 total severe tropical storms, 16 total typhoons (10 strong, 5''' intense, and '''2 violent). Steven09876 05:34, January 4, 2014 (UTC) December 22W.HAGUPIT Tropical Storm Hagupit Forecast to become a cat 3 in 4 days. Hopefully it stays away from the Philippines though. Ryan1000 09:31, December 1, 2014 (UTC) :I have a bad feeling that it's going to be that annual late-season Philippine disaster.--Isaac829 22:00, December 1, 2014 (UTC) ::Sh-t. Notice the left-hand turn at the end of the forecast period that points Hagupit directly toward the central Philippines as a Category 4 typhoon. That's a fairly long way out, but as it stands, this smells like disaster. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:31, December 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::Not again...if that holds true, or worse, if it gets stronger, it'll be the third straight year in a row with a super typhoon hitting the islands late-season. Hagupit is the Philipino word for a lash (whip), and if that forecast holds true, it'll definitely whip the islands very hard. Hopefully evacuations are already under way, this is what Haiyan and Bopha looked like before they struck last year and in 2012, respectively. Ryan1000 10:58, December 2, 2014 (UTC) Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Now at 100 mph, and expected to get much stronger before hitting the islands. Ryan1000 00:37, December 3, 2014 (UTC) :Now 150 mph...predicted to be 185 mph on Friday.--Isaac829 21:32, December 3, 2014 (UTC) :::Hopefully it weakens before it hits...but if the current JTWC forecast holds true, this storm will be moving over the islands much slower than Haiyan did last year, which rushed right on through at full force. Flooding due to rainfall is going to be a much bigger concern for the islands from this powerful super typhoon than it was for Haiyan last year, not to mention the extreme wind and storm surge potential fromwhat could be the third cat 5 to hit the Philippines for 3 straight years in a row. Evacuations better be under way now. Ryan1000 22:39, December 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::...and already at 155 kt. Should be up to 170 kt in a few days.--Isaac829 03:10, December 4, 2014 (UTC) :::::JTWC is now calling for a Category 5 pointed almost directly at Manila... play nice, Hagupit, no Philippines for you... (btw, PAGASA has named this Ruby.) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:31, December 4, 2014 (UTC) :::::::If this storm does hit near Manila as a cat 5, this would be the strongest storm to hit Manila since Angela in 1995, or perhaps even worse if it maintains this intensity at landfall. Pressure is just 5 mbars above Vongfong's, but it's not done intensifying yet. Ryan1000 10:07, December 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::I thought it was actually pretty surprising to see such a powerful storm threatening such large areas in the Philippines so late in the year. I just had to post with such a powerful system threatening Manila. Hopefully they won't get really devastated from this system, which is a slightly more slimmed down version of Haiyan last year and a more northerly version of Bopha in 2012. This storm (Hagupit) is just another one of those annual very late-season destructive Philippines typhoons and the 4th one in a row, after Washi in 2011 (although this wasn't a typhoon but instead a TS), Bopha in 2012, and the unforgettable one, Haiyan in 2013. Let's all pray the Philippines makes it out okay and we not see ANOTHER catastrophic late-season Philippine disaster!!! Play nice, Hagupit, okay? --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:47, December 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Well, I'm back, and this is a surprise. My internet completely died and my computer crashed, so I wasn't able to do anything on the internet in about 2 months. ::::::::I missed ALOT. So I'm welcomed by ANOTHER ''late season Phillipines super storm. Hopefully this won't be anything like Haiyan ::::::::Fortunately, it sure isn't like Haiyan intensitywise as It's winds are 140 MPH. Stay safe, Phillipines. leeboy100My Talk! 03:17, December 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::(apparently my computer crashed before I could change my signature back to its original color) leeboy100My Talk! 03:22, December 6, 2014 (UTC) It seems that Hagupit has hit the Philippines at Samar island as a 125 mph category 3 storm. Not anywhere near as strong as Haiyan last year, but due to the very slow movement of the storm, extreme flooding and mudslides are almost a certainty over parts of the central Philippines and later on, Metro Manila. Let's just hope there's no massive loss of life or extreme damage alongside that. ''Ryan1000 21:42, December 6, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Hagupit Weakening now as it nears Manila, they'll get some rain but wind damage won't be anything severe. Ryan1000 09:29, December 8, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Hagupit (2nd time) Continues to die away... Ryan1000 20:45, December 9, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Hagupit Gone. Ryan1000 17:18, December 12, 2014 (UTC) 23W.JANGMI JMA Tropical Depression And the WPAC refuses to quit. Out of the blue, another invest, 99W, forms roughly 150 nm east of Mindanao. Infrared imagery from the JTWC shows a consolidating LLCC and notable improved convection in the southern quadrant. Also, many fragmented bands are present in the northern quadrant, as noted by AMSU imagery, and a well-defined circulation is present based on ASCAT imagery. With favorable poleward outflow and low to moderate VWS, 99W has another day or so to sneak in some intensity before landfall in Mindanao, given its movement. Currently under a JTWC TCFA (i.e. high chance of formation in the next 24 hours), I see no reason why 99W can not become a tropical depression (TD). Meanwhile, on the JMA side, they have already classified the invest as a TD, with winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). In the time the system has offshore, the JMA do expect brief intensification to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-min)/1002 mbar (hPa) before landfall. Personally, I would rather have 99W stay a TD, because A.) Hagupit easily could make a strong ending to this typhoon season, and B.) The next name, Jangmi, was the name of a beast six years ago. However, I have noticed a lot of names which usually always have no problem becoming typhoons (e.g. Fengshen, Fung-wong, and Sinlaku) fail to do so this year. Hopefully, Jangmi can stop this trend... AndrewTalk To Me 22:47, December 27, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Seniang 99W has been named by PAGASA. AndrewTalk To Me 23:22, December 27, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression 23W And now, the JTWC has picked on Seniang! Now located some 500 nm SE of Manila, Tropical Depression 23W has continued to consolidate, with more convection wrapping into the LLCC based on EIR. One-minute winds are currently 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph), according to Dvorak estimates. Due to a break in the STR, 23W is slated to move WNW for the next day or two before steering more WSW due to another STR north of Southeast Asia. Intensitywise, the models are rather split. NAVGEM and GFS show the depression maintaining intensity over the Philippines and into the South China Sea, but ECMWF and JGSM predict rapid weakening over the archipelago. The JTWC forecast combines these scenarios, with a peak of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-min) expected and gusting to 55 knots (65 mph). Also, I want to point something abnormal about the JTWC and JMA forecasts (BTW, there is nothing new to report from the latter). Apparently, both forecasts call for 23W to attain winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1- and 10-min) (and a forecast pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa) from the JMA) over land. I'm not sure what the logic is, but I hope that does not happen for the sake of the Philippine citizens and Jangmi's "monster" reputation. Impactwise, Signal 1 has been raised in areas around Leyte, with anticipation of slight agricultural damage and travel risks. Finally, on a side note, does anyone know if 23W is associated with this aircraft disappearance? Radar data indicated the flight was in a storm cluster at the time of its last contact. AndrewTalk To Me 14:36, December 28, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm 23W I could certainly use someone to talk with; I have been lonely for the past few days! :( Anyway, this abnormal system just got a bit weirder. Based on Dvorak estimates, the JTWC has upgraded 23W to a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-min) based on KNES and PGTW estimates, gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Moreover, despite effectively being right over Mindanao, the storm is continuing to consolidate, with more convection wrapping into its center. In addition, 23W is over low amounts of VWS and receiving good poleward outflow, both of which could have probably caused additional intensification had the system formed further from land. Meanwhile, as the current STR steers the system WNW over the Philippines, the JTWC is predicting slight weakening until the Sulu Sea, where we could see some reintensification in another 24 hours or so. Further out, one-minute winds are forecasted to peak at 45 knots (50 mph) with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph) in ~96 hours before some strong "northeasterly surge" will shove cooler air into 23W, cueing weakening. From a different lens, Seniang has also been upgraded to a tropical storm by PAGASA, with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) as well (only ten-minute). Signal #2 is now in effect for Bohol, Siargao Island, and other Mindanao locations as a result of this upgrade. Finally, on the JMA side, the pressure has been lowered to 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg), but little else is new. In regards to my earlier question, I am starting to doubt 23W had any effects on the flight, but the alleged disturbance the flight disappeared into appears to be interacting in some way with this storm. For me, what is more concerning about 23W is not its Philippine effects, but what it could do to the search efforts of Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501. Just like how Gillian disrupted Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 sea rescue efforts, we could see some parallels here. My prayers to those families. AndrewTalk To Me 00:01, December 29, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Jangmi Okay, 23W, let me remind you of something - land kills you; it does not nourish you! Apparently, it did not quite get the memo - the JMA has upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Jangmi (a name submitted by the Republic of Korea meaning "rose") over Mindanao, as winds are now 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-min) per RSMC Tokyo, but with the same pressure as my last post. Fortunately, the latest JTWC prognostic reasoning provides more logical information - MSI reveals convection consolidated and improved into a now well-defined LLCC before making landfall at 2200Z, and actually developed a microwave eye before landfall. Who knows what Jangmi could have done if it had formed even a day earlier - the Philippines really avoided another catastrophe! Anyway, the storm's convection has weakened a little, although organization is still bonafide. While the JTWC currently pinpoint Jangmi's winds to be 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (1-min) gusting to 50 knots (60 mph), I won't be surprised if it briefly attained winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-min) at landfall. A similar JTWC forecast is in store for Jangmi; they expect a WNW motion for another couple of days before an STR over Southeastern Asia takes the storm more WNW, with the same peak intensity predicted. In addition, the agency is more confident in their forecast, now that the models have clustered together. Regardless, I would like to the point out Jangmi's forecast cone will take it dangerously close to where rescue efforts could begin in relation to the Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 disaster, which I have expressed concern over above. As for the JMA, they show Jangmi trending closer to Borneo, somewhat reminiscent of Greg from 1996, but luckily with little change in intensity (i.e. a pressure drop to 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg)). Furthermore, PAGASA has issued Signal #2 for more regions of Visayas in anticipation of any effects there. Hopefully, Seniang (Jangmi) can keep it together and cause relatively few impacts. On a side note, I have written a blog over on Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki which discusses any possible effects Jangmi might have had in the Flight 8501 disaster, and I advise any users to take a glance at it; it is very organized and descriptive. AndrewTalk To Me 04:15, December 29, 2014 (UTC) :Well, Jangmi accelerated rather quickly over Mindanao; it is now over Bohol Island! This can be seen in the storm's pressure, which has been lowered to 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg) by the JMA. Additionally, the quirkiness of this storm has continued, for EIR data from Cebu shows Jangmi intensified over Mindanao, as the LLCC has become more tightly wrapped albeit an overall shallowing of its deep convective banding! As if that was not enough, this logic-breaker developed a microwave eye over a strait in the archipelago! Hence, the JTWC have upped Jangmi's winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (1-min) with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph), which, believe it or not, is supported by PGTW estimates. Furthermore, with the storm in an environment of good poleward outflow and low VWS of ten to fifteen knots, I am almost certain Jangmi could have started some form of RI had it been over the open Pacific waters. Luckily, it is slated to weaken due to land interaction with the Visayas islands to 40 knots (45 mph) (1-min), but after the STR over Southeast Asia begins steering it WSW within the next 24 hours or so, it is forecasted to reintensify to a peak of 50 knots (60 mph) (1-min) in a couple of days. I will say this peak is a little lower than you would expect because of the northeasterly surge prone to drag cooler air into Jangmi's circulation, which, again, will be a huge relief for Flight 8501 efforts ongoing. Meanwhile, the JMA and PAGASA are not as excited about Jangmi as the JTWC (and myself) are. Namely, the former expects no more intensification as the storm crosses the rest of the Philippines, and the latter has weakened the system to a tropical depression with winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-min), as well as cancelling all Signal #2's that were in effect. On a side note, as of the moment, no impacts have been reported from Seniang (Jangmi), and I want this to remain true for the remainder of the system's disruption. Also, if you want to see what Jinxed Jangmi looks like, here you go! AndrewTalk To Me 19:05, December 29, 2014 (UTC) :::It looked pretty good before it made landfall, I can't say I'm surprised this got named. Though I can also be fortunate that this didn't pull a Washi and absolutely wreck Mindanao, initial damage and death reports don't seem to indicate a severe storm from Jangmi. As it heads west, it'll probably wear down in the South China Sea before turning south and hitting the Malay Peninsula in 4 or 5 days, by then likely as a depression or remnant low. Though if it lasts just a few more days as a tropical cyclone, it'll be the first time since 2001 (Vaemi) that a storm crossed two calendar years in the WPac. Ryan1000 21:21, December 29, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance With four storms at hand, I feel like we can start this section. #Lingling - 15% - I don't know what to say here. Seventy people is a hefty fatality number from all that flooding in the Philippines, but worse has struck and evicted them. #*''Agaton - 25% - Usually, it takes 300 fatalities to bust out a PAGASA name, but Agaton was a very nasty early season surprise for them.'' #Kajiki - 5% - Seven fatalities and an early season Philippine landfall is probably all Kajiki will be remembered for, and Lingling was worse. #*Basyang - 10% - I feel Agaton was worse, although Basyang did kill seven and produce minor impacts. #Faxai - 0% - Became a breathtaking March typhoon, but caused no land impacts, so no. #04W - 0% - Not named by the JMA. #*Caloy - 1% - Even Basyang was worse! #Peipah - 0.1% - This could have been a much different story for the Philippines. Luckily, Peipah was kept in check. #*Domeng - 0.1% - Caloy was worse than you! #Mitag - 0.5% - Mitag zipped by a number of areas, but it had very little impact whatsoever outside of the Philippines. #*Ester - 2% - Some slight flooding was reported in the Philippines, but no damages or fatalites have been reported. #Hagibis - 8% - Well, the $131 million (2014 USD) was more than I expected. But even with 11 casualties, I do not think Hagibis will get retired. #Neoguri - 10% - With seven fatalities and slight to moderate damage across Okinawa and Japan, I do not expect Neoguri's demise yet. #*Florita - 0% - To my knowledge, Florita completely missed the Philippines. #'Rammasun - 60% - Yikes, the Thai god of thunder sure did leave his mark. Ninety percent of Metro Manila was left without power, and almost a hundred fatalities were reported in the Philippines. If that does not seal the deal, 51,000 homes were destroyed by Rammasun in Hainan, and Haikou, widespread tree, flooding, structural, and vehicle damage was reported. This was the most severe impacts they have witnessed from a typhoon in over four centuries. Vietnam also saw some nasty effects from Rammasun. With 187 fatalities and $6.51 billion (2014 USD) in losses, the typhoon is the sixth costliest WPAC system on record. I really hope Rammasun is kicked off the list, but deadlier storms have been snubbed in the past.' #*''Glenda - 100% - Recent damage estimates from Glenda guarantee its retirement.'' #Matmo - 20% - Matmo caused some severe agricultural damage in Taiwan and killed three across the nation and China. In addition, there was the nasty TransAsia airline crash which killed 48. Although this was less devastating than what I thought, 62 deaths and $565 million (2014 USD) is nothing we should be laughing at, and there is definitely a good chance here. #*Henry - 1% - As far as I recall, nothing yet has been reported in the Philippines from Henry. #Halong - 10% - the Philippines, and Japan got nailed too. Mie Perfecture witnessed a record-breaking rainfall rate and emergency warning, and strong gusts whipped the entire region. Twelve fatalities is rather low for retirement, but $1.1 billion (2014 USD) in losses puts Halong as the tenth-costliest Japanese typhoon on record. Although far costlier storms evicted retirement from Japan, we have no laughing matter here. Never mind, Halong only caused around $3.88 million in damages. That should reduce its chances quite a bit. #*Jose - 5% - Actually, Jose was a little catastrophic for the Philippines. Thousands of people were affected by the monsoon rains, which killed two. Damages in the Philippines are estimated to be at P1.624 million. That's definitely not enough for retirement, but just something worth noting. #Nakri - 7% - Fatalities in the Koreas were a little more deadly than I expected, and 16 deaths is nothing to laugh at. However, damages in relation to Nakri were only at $116,000 (2014 USD). That number is a lot less than I feared, and while Nakri has that small chance, I doubt it now. #*Inday - 0% - Inday completely missed the region. #JMA Tropical Depression - 0% #*Karding - 1% - Karding did affect the Philippines, but I have heard no reports of devastation just yet. #Fengshen - 0.5% - Aside from some potential effects in Japan, the Chinese god of wind busted this year. #Kalmaegi - 20% - Caused extreme flooding and disrupted the Hong Kong stock market, not to mention flooding elsewhere. This was quite a typhoon, albeit weak. #*''Luis - 40% - 12 deaths and $18.3 million (2014 USD) does not qualify for PAGASA retirement standards, but the flash flooding caused around Luzon should make them think otherwise.'' #''Fung-wong - 35% - Lots of torrential rain in Metro Manila. Heck, people were riding around in canoes! Other effects included lahars from Mayon Volcano and extreme rainfall in Taiwan. 21 fatalities and $75.5 million (2014 USD) in losses may not be over the top, but the impact should say otherwise.'' #*'Mario - 70% - I don't care if the statistics don't meet PAGASA retirement standards, what happened in Manila would get Mario retired elsewhere in a lot of other places.' #Kammuari - 0% - Yes, Japan and the Marinara Islands were affected, but no deaths/damage, so no retirement. #Phanfone - 15% - Strong gusts across southern Japan left thousands without power, halted Mount Ontake rescue efforts, and disrupted the Japanese Grand Prix. Losses seem to be quite high from a variety of perfectures ($41.5 million (2014 USD) in damages total), and 11 fatalities is nothing to laugh at. Phanfone was not as impacting as Halong or even Wipha, but it still left a huge mark from Japan. #*Neneng - 0% - Zilch Philippine impacts. #Vongfong - 20% - Effects outside of Japan weren't that notable from Vongfong, but Taiwan lost a very notable research ship. Several unfortunate fates occured in Japan with the winds and rain, but Japan hasn't been crying this was a nightmare storm, so I doubt it. #*Ompong - 3% - Several flash floods occurred around Luzon and four fatalities were reported. However, PHP$4.02 million is far below what PAGASA deems severe, so we'll very likely see Ompong again in 2018. #Nuri - 1% - Some coral vessel ships were affected by Nuri south of Japan, but with minimal damage and no fatalities, most areas fortunately saw nothing at all from the typhoon. While Nuri's remnants did contribute to the North America cold snap, a seperate cyclone was responsible for altering the jet stream. #*Paeng - 0% - Like Neneng, Paeng missed by a long shot. #Sinlaku - 2% - Four fatalities and $4.3 million (2014 USD) is not nothing, but both the Vietnam and Philippines have seen much worse, and I really heard nothing about impacts in the first place from Sinlaku. #*Queenie - 1% - I'm not sure how much of the above statistics occurred in the Philippines. #''Hagupit - 25% - Well, this storm came out of nowhere and got extremely strong! I was surprised that the WPAC produced another C5. However, the Philippines fortunately got really lucky. In addition to weakening down to a C3 before landfall, the nation was very bold in canceling school, alerting citizens, etc. Sadly, there were still impacts. Severe mudflow was reported around Mayon Volcano, and 18 people died from the typhoon, with over 900 injuries. Not Haiyan-bad, but still notable in its own right.'' #*'Ruby - 70% - Total damages of 5.09 billion in PHP are beyond enough to ensure Ruby's retirement, but I'm not sure how PAGASA will handle the low death toll.' #Jangmi - TBA - Still active, but as I have expressed, I am concerned what this storm could do to affect the Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 tragedy. #*Seniang - TBA - Still Active Post yours, too! AndrewTalk To Me 13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC) ---- Steven's retirement predictions: JMA names *Lingling: 20% - 70 deaths but still doesn't seem bad enough for a retirement. *Kajiki: 5% - Slight impacts for the Philippines, but Lingling was worse. *Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon, but still no land impacts. *Peipah: 1% - Umm, no. *Tapah: 0% - No land was harmed in the making of Tapah. *Mitag: 0.5% - Very little impact. *Hagibis: 5% - $131 million in China and 11 deaths, but it most likely won't be retired. *Neoguri: 10% - Could've been a different story for Japan but luckily it weakened a lot before reaching Japan. There were much worse storms than Neoguri in the country, so I don't expect a retirement out of this guy. *'Rammasun: 70% - With all the damages it caused in Philippines and Hainan a retirement is very likely out of him.' *''Matmo: 30% - Slight chance due to some destruction in Taiwan and China. It also caused a very deadly TransAsia plane crash that caused 48 deaths.'' *''Halong: 25% - Damage in Japan and the Philippines may be enough to give it a slight shot at retirement but I doubt that will happen.'' *Nakri: 5% - 11 deaths and moderate damage throughout its path, but I doubt it would be retired. *Fengshen: 0% - Spinning fish out at sea won't earn a retirement. *Kalmaegi: 65% - Very destructive throughout its path and has a shot at retirement. *Fung-Wong: 15% - Might have a slight shot, but I don't think so. *Kammuri: 0% - All it does is spin fish. *Phanfone: 10% - It caused some slight impacts in southern Japan, but it's still not enough for retiring the name. *Vongfong: 10% - It became an awesomely powerful system but the damage/death tolls in southern Japan are only similar to Phanfone's totals, so it most likely won't be retired. *Nuri: 1% - It did have an incredibly awesome strength but impacts were very little if anything. PAGASA names *''Agaton: 30% - What a nasty early season surprise, might be retired but at the same time I think not.'' *Basyang: 10% - 7 deaths, however, Agaton was worse and Basyang barely has a chance. *Caloy: 1% - Seriously? Even Basyang was worse than you. *Domeng: 0.01% - Lol, this epic fail couldn't even compete with Caloy! :O It still affected land though, so I tacked a "0.01%" on Domeng. *Ester: 1% - Some flooding in the Philippines but it's not getting the boot. *Florita: 0% - Missed the Philippines *''Glenda: 100% - With all the damages it caused, it will certainly be retired. PHP 1 billion in damage is enough to give it the boot.'' *Henry: 0% - Missed the Philippines *Inday: 0% - Missed the Philippines *Jose: 3% - Very slight damage in the Philippines but it's not going. *Karding: 0% - Meh. *Luis: 5% - Probably not. *Mario: 10% - Not enough to retire, really. *Neneng: 0% - Missed the Philippines. *Ompong: 0% - Missed the Philippines. *Paeng: 0% - Missed the Philippines Steve820 20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC) (Last updated: 16:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)) ---- Ryan Grand's great speech... JMA names: *Lingling - 38% - 70 deaths isn't anything to laugh at, but enough for retirement? Probably not, unfortunately. *Kajiki - 3% - Caused some impacts, but it's nothing retirement-worthy. *Faxai - 0% - Became a typhoon, that's about it. *Peipah - 1% - Minor flooding in the Marshall Islands, that's all there is to say. *Tapah - 0% - No impact. *Mitang - 0% - didn't know this one existed lol. *Hagbis - 15% - 131 million in damage and 11 deaths isn't a fail, but it's not enough to get the boot either. *Neoguri - 11% - Killed 7 people and caused some damage here and there, but Japan has seen worse and I don't expect it to be retired. *Rammasun - 80% - Six billion dollars in damage and over 100 deaths are very good numbers to retire a name, making Rammasun one of the top 10 costliest typhoons in history, but there have been bigger numbers from some other snubs in the WPac before, like Songda '04 (9 billion in damage) and Fengshen '08 (over 1000 deaths). Still, it was a widespread, destructive storm, and it has a fairly good shot at retirement. *Matmo - 45% - Current damage estimates are 567 million and it killed over 60 people in Taiwan and China, but it's not like they haven't seen that before. Probably not getting retired. *Halong - 5% - Although I was a little skeptical of Halong's damage at first, I certainly didn't expect the initial 1 billion damage estimate to be knocked down to a measly 3 million after detailed reanalysis. It looks like Halong pulled an Ophelia '05, and I doubt it's going now. *Nakri - 6% - 16 deaths and moderate damage reported. While that's not nothing, it isn't enough to retire it either. *Fengshen - 0% - Ooh, fishie! *Kalmaegi - 60% - Aon Benfield's disaster report for September 2014 (from Dr. Master's latest blog post) reveals that Kalmaegi caused 3 billion in damage and over 30 deaths across the Philippines, China, and Vietnam. That's more than I expected, but if Hagupit in 2008 didn't go for similar numbers, Kalmaegi may not either. *Fung-Wong - 32% - 75 million and 19 deaths isn't negligible, but it's probably not enough to retire a name either. *Kammuri - 0% - Remained well out to sea. *Phanfone - 4% - Minor damage and 1 death isn't going to cut the bill. Better luck next time Phanfone. *Vongfong - 24% - Damage was mostly moderate, nothing exceptional. *Nuri - 0% - Strong, but didn't affect land. *Sinlaku - 4% - 4 deaths and minimal damage won't cut it. *Hagupit - 22% - Despite its violent intensity, Hagupit was significantly less severe than the super typhoons that battered them in the past two years. 75 million USD and 18 deaths is enough to give its PAGASA name (Ruby) the boot, but it's JMA name also? Probably not. PAGASA names: *Agaton - 35% - A bit higher than it's JMA name, but even so, I doubt it will go. *Basyang - 8% - Killed a few people and caused some damage, but it was far less devastating than Agaton, and many other storms that have hit the islands in the past. *Caloy - 0.5% - Is this a joke? *Domeng - 0% - Didn't cause severe effects to the Philipines. *Ester - 0% - Missed them completely. *Florita - 0% - Not even close. *Glenda - 100% - PAGASA storm names are retired if they cause at least 1 billion PHP in damage, and Glenda caused roughly 10 billion PHP damage (the 9th costliest typhoon in the nation's history), so yeah, goodbye. *Henry - 0% - Didn't touch the Philipines. *Inday - 0% - Nope. *Jose - 2% - Not a full miss, but no. *Karding - 0% - *yawns* *Luis - 5% - Little impact reported. *Mario - 100% - Meets the 1 billion dollar criteria (around 2.8 billion overall), so he's out. *Neneng - 0% - Well away from the islands. *Paeng - 0% - Not even close to the islands. *Queenie - 5% - Minor impacts. *Ruby - 100% - Met the billion dollar criteria. So bye. That sums it up. Ryan1000 23:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC) 's retirements *Lingling - 15% *Kajiki - 0.05% *Faxai - 0% - Good job Faxai. *Peipah - 8% - for its name sounds like Peppa(which was called Peppa Pig) *Tapah - 0.5% - Tapah reminds me of a Japanese Man PAGASA *Agaton - 25% *Basyang - 9% *Caloy - 0.5% - Funny name *Domemeng - 4% - lower than JMA name TO BE CONTINUED 23:17, May 1, 2014 (UTC) MY PREDICTIONS: : JMA: *Lingling - 30% - significant damage to the Philippines, but not enough. *Kajiki - 10% - Lingling was worse. *Faxai - 5% - A March typhoon. Just a March typhoon. No impact(s) at land. *Peipah - 2% - Eh? *Tapah - 0% - Wait, there's a storm named Tapah? *Mitag - 3% - Um... not really. *Hagibis - 20% - Oh, 11 deaths and $131 million worth of damage. China has seen worse storms. *Neoguri - 23% - Japan has seen worse than this, but wow, it was a big threat to Japan *''Rammasun - 85% - Philippines consider this comparable to Xangsane, but Xangsane was worse though. But 40 deaths is quite big. And it hasn't dissipated yet. Forget what I have said before, $4.55 billion worth of damages and 170 total deaths in China, Vietnam and the Philippines is enough to retire Rammasun.'' : PAGASA: *Agaton - 35% - What an early surprise to the Philippines. 70 deaths, but that's it. *Basyang - 25% - Agaton was worse. *Caloy - 0% - Nah. *Domeng - 0% - Same with Caloy. *Ester - 2% - Quite affected the Philippines, but no significant damage. *Florita - 3% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon, but other than that, nothing else. *'Glenda - 100% - OUT. PHP 1 billion worth of damages is enough.' * : (TO BE CONTINUED) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, July 17, 2014 (UTC) Time to throw my hat into the ring: ;JMA : *Lingling: 29% - 70 fatalities is no laughing matter, but deadlier Philippine storms have been snubbed before. *Kajiki: 7% - Wasn't bad enough. *Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon... and that's it. *Peipah: 0% - Nah. *Tapah: 0% - Glub glub glub. *Mitag: Who cares? *Hagibis: 13% - Death toll and damage bill are respectable, but not enough. *Neoguri: 14% - ^ *'Rammasun:' 88% - Severe, widespread damage across several countries. $6.51 billion in damage and a grand total of 187 deaths significantly outshines the impact from last year's Utor, which was retired. *Matmo: 33% - Could've been a lot worse. ;PAGASA : *'Glenda:' 100% - Damage bill is 1080% of the criteria, and rising. *'Mario:' 100% - Damage bill is currently three times the criteria. *All others: 0% - Did not meet the criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:05, July 26, 2014 (UTC) Replacement names Well, no one started this section, so I thought I would. Again, I realize this is the WPAC, where any replacement name can be submitted for a retired JMA name. Nevertheless, I will give suggestion for the names I think should go. Remember, Thailand will submit the replacement for Rammasun (they submitted it), and Hong Kong will submit the replacement for Fung-wong. JMA: Rammasun: (among the top ten costliest WPAC typhoons on record) *'Nattapong' (most popular Thai boy name in Thailand) *May (most popular Thai girl name in Thailand) *Congee (a rice dish frequently eaten for breakfast in Thailand) *Chaokuai (a grass jelly served with ice and brown sugar) *Kupera (Thai god of wealth) *Khuna (Thai god of paradise) *Chba (Thai name for hibisucs, a symbolism of Southeastern Asia and the tropical world) *Chang (Thai name for elephant, the national animal) *Takraw (a native Thai variation of volleyball where players can only use their feet, knee, head, and chest to touch the ball) *Plaek (a historical Thai figure, led the Thai Army during World War II) Fung-wong: (caused severe flooding in Metro Manila) *'Chi-kung' (Chinese variation of a popular Cantonese name) *Mei-yee (Chinese variation of a popular Cantonese name) *Victoria (name of famous Hong Kong harbor) *Kau-lung (Cantonese name for Kowloon, a populous urban district in Hong Kong) *Zing-seoi-daan (Cantonese jyutping for a popular steamed egg dish eaten all over Hong Kong). PAGASA: Glenda: (PAGASA name for Rammasun) *'Gugurang' (a supreme god who dwells inside Mount Mayon who protects the sacred fire his brother was trying to steal) *Ginton (a Tboli diety, god of metallurgy) *Gemang (an Illogont diety, guardian of wild beasts) *Ginling (a traditional Filipino dish usually made with ground beef and potatoes) *Ganaden (popular Filipino name) *Gerna (popular Filipino girl name) *Geneva (common Western Filipino name in reference to the juniper berry) *Gemma (common Western Filipino name in reference to precious stone) *Gretchen (western Filipino name in reference to a pearl) *Gin (a Japanese Filipino name meaning "silver") Mario: (PAGASA name for Fung-wong) *'Magdang' (Filipino god of lakes) *Maguimba (a Filipino Batak deity who supplied all of the necessities to life) *Mechado (a popular Filipino beef dish, often served with soy sauce) *Migoy (Filipino variation of Miguel) *Milo (common Western Filipino name meaning "soldier") *Matthew (common Western Filipino name meaning "gift of God") Please post your replacement prediction as well! AndrewTalk To Me 15:09, October 25, 2014 (UTC) I'm not really sure what to think of JMA repacements, namely Rammasun (they're the toughest replacements to predict, since they don't have to have the same first letter), but as for Glenda, I'm voting for Gill or Gilian. Mario, Matthew looks pretty good for me. I don't think Fung-Wong itself will be retired though, and why not include Kalmaegi as a potential canidate? It caused 3 billion in damage to China and Vietnam, according to Aon Benfield. Ryan1000 12:13, November 1, 2014 (UTC)